Posts Tagged ‘gas’

Today was the last day of the month and quarter, and therefore it held quite a bit of significance. While most people expected a nice rally due to the window dressing theory, we ended up getting a strong sell off on bad news followed by bulls buying the dips. My theory is that today is probably going to be the last time the bulls will buy the dip. More specifically, if tomorrow’s jobs numbers shoves the markets down, we will not see the bulls buy back in, the bulls that bought today will be trapped and probably sell in panic. For me to be a full on bear though, I have to see a break of the 1035-1040 buffer zone. We also look at the monthly candle and how it closed below the 20 SMA monthly as resistance. Last time we hit the 20 SMA monthly we fell significantly lower. In addition i talk about shorting a basket of individual stocks VS the SPY: WYNN, LVS, SBUX, AMZN, AAPL, GYMB.

My long term forecasts for real estate, stock market indexes, bonds, and advice about 401K and savings accounts. I will also have more clips about topics outside of finance and investment

Friday’s trading day was a game changer, the last hour rally was not one of just a short squeeze before a weekend but one that showed that we are now trading in a triangle formation and we could potentially break to the upside. I, However, suggest people play the triangle formation before getting all that bullish. The reason i have more inclination to the bullish side is because a triangle formation after a rally is usually looked upon as consolidation and the next move is usually a breakout to the upside, once that happens the market can shoot to the 1030-1040, and that will probably be the end of Primary wave 2, before a new bear market begins.

First of all I want to go ahead and admit that I was wrong when I said that the market would go up early in the morning and then reverse in late trading to fall about 1-1.5%. That was my intuition but it obviously didn’t happen. The market continued to stay at very strong resistance but failed to break it. It looks like my down day might get delayed by a couple of hours and take affect either tomorrow or the day after. Tomorrow is an important day as it is also the last day of the month. At this point i would rather be more bearish than bullish as we have the H&S formation still in play and a lot of resistance from over head, and today’s volume was incredibly low (as low as fridays or even lower). I look at different charts to show how the bearish side looks more promising, but I stay neutral on some action. I view SPY, XLF, GS, AAPL, AMZN, VIX.

Today we looked at the strong rally on high volume and what it meant for the markets moving forward. I added a lot to my shorts in preparation for a continuation of the sell side as the market failed to stay above the channel support. With that in mind, i show the H&S formation that have been forming on the markets, and the neckline levels that need to be breached in order for us to see more downside. I have September puts on BEN, GLD (gold), XLF and SPY. My stops are placed in comparison to the SPY 101.65 level.

Today we step back and look at the last 3 days of trading as they have broken both the ascending wedge formation and the megaphone formation to the downside (both are very bearish patterns). My guess is that we could have started a shorter-term and potentially a longer term top. I outline the channel that people should be eying and the type of trades that we should be looking at. I also look at our 2 short trades that have been working out nicely

Today we look at some fibonacci targets for the markets. SPY has a target of between 109.10 and 109.70 whereas gold has already hit it’s target at around 104. I believe that in the very very near term, we will see GLD under perform SPY due to ti’s overbought status. We went ahead and placed a short gold and long SPY trade today. Short GLD at 4.40, and a Long SPY at 7.40. Our stop is a net credit of 0.25 cents for now, and will widen. We also look at JPM as we have to see financials get stronger in order for the market to push on ahead. Rememeber that we are in options expiration so today could be a crazy day, but if we break the SPY 50 SMA daily to the down side, and breakdown the wedge be VERY careful, this market is very susceptible to a crash.

Today we look at the alternate views of the longer term market based on Elliott wave analysis. Some other things to keep in mind is that this market needs to retrace very very soon. We managed to call the top around 1044-1046 today, and we expect some sort of selling pressure into monday. We look at SPX, Dow Jones, JPM and XLF (which are both forming H&S formations).

Today we play the calendar game. We start off with a weekly chart of the ES (SPY futures) dating back a few years and see what has been happening in the markets ever since. We slowly zoom into the action and try to understand where we are at within the bearish patterns that have been developing over the last 6 months. Today we notice that the 3 last days of the rally have been an ascending wedge formed by an options expiration lift, and if broken to the downside could be incredibly bearish into next week. We also notice that the last week has been basically consolidation for another potential move higher if 1008 on the S&P is broken. If that level is broken, we will shoot to the 1008 double top and probably break it and rally to at least 1020-1025 and as high as 1045. Since we’ve had 3 days of low volume rallies we believe that tomorrow could be a pull back, we played today by selling the upside 102 SPY august calls hoping for some premium, and buying september puts (even though some got stopped out earlier on).

Today I look at the SPY, GS, VIX, AAPL, AMZN and talk about some other charts as we end the month with a Doji candle and the day down with somewhat stronger volume. The action is still not bearish and is more neutral, wednesday and thursday will be incredibly important.